1	Computer Science: Past, Present, and Future Ed Lazowska Bill & Melinda Gates Chair in Computer Science & Engineering University of Washington Chair, Computing Community Consortium SIGCSE March 2008 http://www.cra.org/ccc/
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5	10,000,000,000,000,000,000 grains of rice Ten quintillion: 10*10¹⁸ The number of grains of rice harvested in 2004
6	10,000,000,000,000,000,000 transistors Ten quintillion: 10*10¹⁸ The number of grains of rice harvested in 2004 The number of transistors fabricated in 2004
7	The transistor William Shockley, Walter Brattain and John Bardeen, Bell Labs, 1947
8	The integrated circuit Jack Kilby, Texas Instruments, and Bob Noyce, Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation, 1958
9	Exponential progress Gordon Moore, 1965
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14	Software makes remarkable progress too! Deep Blue, 1997
15	"Deep Fritz," Deep Fritz, 2002
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17	This sort of progress makes it dicey to predict the future “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons” – Popular Science, 1949
18	Today: Roughly 1 billion PCs …
19	Representing less than 2% of all processors!
20	Number of Internet hosts 1970: 10 1975: 100 1980: 200 1985: 2,000 1990: 350,000 1995: 10,000,000 2000: 100,000,000 2005: 400,000,000
21	A connected region – then
22	A connected region – now
23	The Computer: Time Magazine’s 1982 “Machine of the Year”
24	"“In medicine," “In medicine, the computer, which started by keeping records and sending bills, now suggests diagnoses. The process may sound dehumanized, but in one hospital … a survey of patients showed that they found the machine ‘more friendly, polite, relaxing and comprehensible’ than the average physician.’”
25	"“When the citizen of..." “When the citizen of tomorrow wants a new suit, one futurist scenario suggests, his personal computer will take his measurements and pass them on to a robot that will cut his choice of cloth with a laser beam and provide him with a perfectly tailored garment.”
26	"“When the citizen of..." “When the citizen of tomorrow wants a new suit, one futurist scenario suggests, his personal computer will take his measurements and pass them on to a robot that will cut his choice of cloth with a laser beam and provide him with a perfectly tailored garment.”
27	"“When the citizen of..." “When the citizen of tomorrow wants a new suit, one futurist scenario suggests, his personal computer will take his measurements and pass them on to a robot that will cut his choice of cloth with a laser beam and provide him with a perfectly tailored garment.”
28	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
29	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
30	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
31	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
32	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
33	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
34	"“In the home," “In the home, computer enthusiasts delight in imagining machines performing domestic chores.”
35	"“Seymour Papert … author..." “Seymour Papert … author of Mindstorms: Children, Computers and Powerful Ideas …”
36	"“Seymour Papert … author..." “Seymour Papert … author of Mindstorms: Children, Computers and Powerful Ideas …”
37	"“Or as Adam Osborne..." “Or as Adam Osborne puts it: ‘The future lies in designing and selling computers that people don't realize are computers at all.’”
38	"“Or as Adam Osborne..." “Or as Adam Osborne puts it: ‘The future lies in designing and selling computers that people don't realize are computers at all.’”
39	The Computing Community Consortium: Stimulating Bigger Thinking
40	Computing has changed the world Advances in computing change the way we live, work, learn, and communicate Advances in computing drive advances in nearly all other fields Advances in computing power our economy Not just through the growth of the IT industry – through productivity growth across the entire economy
41	Research has built the foundation Timesharing Computer graphics Networking (LANs and the Internet) Personal workstation computing Windows and the graphical user interface RISC architectures Modern integrated circuit design RAID storage Parallel computing
42	Much of the impact is recent Entertainment technology Data mining Portable communication The World Wide Web Speech recognition Broadband last mile
43	The future is full of opportunity Creating the future of networking Driving advances in all fields of science and engineering Wreckless driving Personalized education Predictive, preventive, personalized medicine Quantum computing Empowerment for the developing world Personalized health monitoring => quality of life Harnessing parallelism: many-core and DISC Neurobotics Synthetic biology The algorithmic lens: Cyber-enabled Discovery and Innovation
44	We must work together to establish, articulate, and pursue visions for the field The challenges that will shape the intellectual future of the field The challenges that will catalyze research investment and public support The challenges that will attract the best and brightest minds of a new generation
45	To this end, NSF asked CRA to create the Computing Community Consortium To catalyze the computing research community to consider such questions To envision long-range, more audacious research challenges To build momentum around such visions To state them in compelling ways To move them towards funded initiatives To ensure “science oversight” of large-scale initiatives A “cooperative agreement” with NSF Close coordination
46	The structure CCC is all of us! This process must succeed, and it can’t succeed without broad community engagement There is a CCC Council to guide the effort The Council stimulates and facilitates – it doesn’t “own” Inaugural Council appointed through an open process led by Randy Bryant The Council is led by a Chair Ed Lazowska, University of Washington Susan Graham, UC Berkeley, serves as Vice Chair 50% effort – not titular The CCC is staffed by CRA Andy Bernat serves as Executive Director
47	"Those involved in shaping CRA’s..." Those involved in shaping CRA’s response to NSF’s original challenge Inaugural CCC Council
48	Activities to date Definition and execution of a bootstrapping procedure for the CCC Not straightforward, because community ownership was essential! Five plenary talks at the Federated Computing Research Conference (June 2007) to introduce CCC to the computing research community Embracing and amplifying efforts that are already underway
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51	"Definition and execution of an..." Definition and execution of an RFP process to support visioning by the computing research community Quarterly deadlines, but a rolling process Three efforts launched thus far: “Big Data Computing Study Group” “Visions for Theoretical Computer Science” “From Internet to Robotics: The Next Transformative Technology”
52	"Big Data Computing Study Group" Big Data Computing Study Group Topic: “The Big Data Computing Study Group will undertake efforts to explore and enable opportunities on the research and application of high-performance computing over very large data sets.” Leadership: Randy Bryant, CMU Thomas Kwan, Yahoo! Research Initial activities: Hadoop Summit, March 25, Sunnyvale CA Data-Intensive Scalable Computing Symposium, March 26, Sunnyvale CA
53	"Visions for Theoretical Computer Science" Visions for Theoretical Computer Science Topic: “The purpose of the visioning workshop will be to identify and distill broad research themes within TCS that have potential for major impact in the future … The workshop will aim to produce compelling “nuggets” that can quickly convey the importance of a research direction to a layperson [and] could be used by the CCC or anyone else making the case for a sustained investment in long-term, foundational computing research.” Leadership: Richard Ladner, Washington Bernard Chazelle, Anna Karlin, Dick Lipton, Salil Vadhan Initial activities: Workshop prior to STOC, May 17, Seattle WA
54	"From Internet to Robotics:" From Internet to Robotics: The Next Transformative Technology Topic: “This study will generate a roadmap of applications for robotics across users, producers and researchers. The objective is to provide a comprehensive view of use of robotics, the main obstacles to deployment, and the key competencies required to facilitate the transformation.” Leadership: Henrik Christensen, Georgia Tech 10 others (Leslie Kaelbling, Sebastian Thrun, …) Initial activities: Workshop on manufacturing robotics, June 17, Washington DC Workshop on medical/healthcare robotics, June 19-20, Washington DC
55	"Creation of a website with..." Creation of a website with lots of good intentions for the future … Visioning blog … “Mythbusting” … “The Promise of IT”
56	"Extensive work with NSF and..." Extensive work with NSF and the computing research community related to GENI (the Global Environment for Network Innovations) and the broader NetSE (Network Science & Engineering) research agenda GENI Community Advisory Board -> GENI Science Council -> NetSE Council 19 members, chaired by Ellen Zegura of Georgia Tech
57	The desired outcomes Broad community engagement in establishing more audacious and inspiring research visions for our field Some may require significant research infrastructure (e.g., NetSE); some will be new programs (e.g., CDI) Better public appreciation of the potential of the field Attraction of a new generation of students Greater impact!
58	The next ten years …
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63	eScience: Sensor-driven (data-driven) science and engineering
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76	2. NetSE: Creating the future of networking
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80	Challenge to the Community Fundamental Question: Is there a science for understanding the complexity of our networks such that we can engineer them to have predictable behavior?
81	Network Science and Engineering: Fundamental Challenges
82	Flattening the world (empowering the developing world)
83	"3 billion people in the..." 3 billion people in the rural developing world need the same information we do
84	"3 billion people in the..." 3 billion people in the rural developing world have different limitations and capabilities
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89	Harnessing parallelism
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92	A Parallel Revolution, Ready or Not PC, Server: Power Wall + Memory Wall = Brick Wall End of the way we built microprocessors for last 40 years New Moore’s Law is 2X processors (“cores”) per chip every technology generation, but same clock rate “This shift toward increasing parallelism is not a triumphant stride forward based on breakthroughs …; instead, this … is actually a retreat from even greater challenges that thwart efficient silicon implementation of traditional solutions.” The Parallel Computing Landscape: A Berkeley View, Dec 2006 Sea change for HW & SW industries since changing the model of programming and debugging New “Moore’s Law” is 2X processors per chip every 2 years Duo core, Quad core, … Goal: Productive, Efficient, Correct Programming of 100+ cores & scale as double cores every 2 years (!)
93	Suppose software stops getting faster What if IT goes from a growth industry to a replacement industry? If SW can’t effectively use 32, 64, ... cores per chip Þ SW no faster on new computer Þ Only buy if computer wears out Impact on US economy if end of “Moore’s Law”? How much productivity tied to IT? How much IT tied to faster computers? Opportunity to lose US lead in IT if others solve the problem If someone in China invents a Mandarin-based programming language that solves the parallel computing problem, then I’ll need to learn Mandarin
94	More Work Needed Research Needed CMOS end-game electricals problems Multicore SW Power/thermals management Thread and manycore sync: SW needs help Expand synergies between embedded & GP Design-in-the-Large Grand Challenges New technologies like reconfig fabrics, streaming machines, quantum, bio, nano
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96	Google’s Computing Infrastructure System ~ 3 million processors in clusters of ~2000 processors each Commodity parts x86 processors, IDE disks, Ethernet communications Gain reliability through redundancy & software management Partitioned workload Data: Web pages, indices distributed across processors Function: crawling, index generation, index search, document retrieval, Ad placement A Data-Intensive Scalable Computer (DISC) Large-scale computer centered around data Collecting, maintaining, indexing, computing Similar systems at Microsoft & Yahoo
97	CS Research Issues Applications Language translation, image processing, … Application Support Machine learning over very large data sets Web crawling Programming Abstract programming models to support large-scale computation Distributed databases System Design Error detection & recovery mechanisms Resource scheduling and load balancing Distribution and sharing of data across system
98	The algorithmic lens – a computational perspective transforms the sciences Envisioned by the theory community Brought to life as the NSF Cyber-Enabled Discovery Initiative (CDI): $52M in FY08 => $250M in FY12
99	Wreckless driving
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101	"In 2004," In 2004, in just the United States: 6,181,000 police-reported traffic accidents 42,636 people killed 2,788,000 people injured 4,281,000 had property damage only ~ $500 billion (that’s half a trillion dollars …) in annual economic cost 200 times greater than even an extravagant estimate of the nation’s annual investment in computing research
102	Personalized health monitoring => quality of life
103	Quality of Life Technology Engineering Research Center Rory Cooper Co-Director FISA/PVA Chair and Distinguished Professor Dept of Rehabilitation Science and Technology University of Pittsburgh
104	Neurobotics
105	Personalized education
106	Quantum computing
107	Predictive, preventive, personalized medicine
108	Synthetic biology / molecular engineering
109	Entertainment technology; more broadly, content creation tools
110	Learning from data: ubiquitous data mining and machine learning
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112	Dispel these myths! You need to have programmed in high school to pursue computer science in college A computer science degree leads only to a career as a programmer Programming is a solitary activity Employment continues to be in a trough Eventually, all the programming jobs will be overseas Student interest in computer science is lower than in most other STEM fields Computer science lacks opportunities for making a positive impact on society There’s nothing intellectually challenging in computer science There have been no recent breakthroughs in computer science Computer science lacks compelling research visions
113	[Your part goes here] What are your compelling visions for the field? How can the CCC facilitate your pursuit of them? http://www.cra.org/ccc/